Debate in China over the role of nuclear weapons ebbs and flows, but its technical ability to wage a limited nuclear war within its region is growing. The United States is also examining options for modernising its tactical nuclear arsenal.
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Russia continues to upgrade its tactical nuclear delivery systems and increase its targeting capability, and may be investing in a revitalised tactical nuclear warhead program. There is a risk that the modernisation of tactical nuclear weapons could encourage a new arms race among nuclear powers and potentially even have an impact on strategic stability in the modern nuclear era. Other nuclear powers emphasised tactical nuclear weapons in their nuclear messaging during periods of international tension. This has led to renewed debate within the strategic communities of some of these countries about the role of tactical nuclear weapons in both deterrence and war fighting. In recent years, the major nuclear powers have been capitalising on advances in technology to improve the accuracy and sophistication of their tactical nuclear weapons.
How these conventional and nuclear programs will interact, and whether the international community can incorporate them into future arms control efforts, will determine their potential effect on strategic stability in the modern nuclear era. Other conventional military systems that are capable of having strategic effects are also becoming factors in nuclear deterrence dynamics as the major nuclear powers continue to modernise their nuclear arsenals. Today, more states than ever have the ability to launch long-range precision strikes with nuclear-capable cruise and ballistic missiles. Still, technological change is driving the proliferation of advanced conventional military capabilities. Nuclear use remains a remote possibility compared to the Cold War. However, these technological advances also make low-yield tactical nuclear weapons more ‘usable’ in a wider variety of scenarios, potentially endangering strategic stability and encouraging an arms race. In theory, more robust and credible nuclear arsenals will strengthen deterrence among the major nuclear powers - the United States, Russia, and China. As the major nuclear powers continue to modernise their nuclear forces, advances in technology are making tactical nuclear weapons more precise and sophisticated.
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